By Ipsita Shome
Expectations tilted, but for good
China continues to surprise the world. And sadly, itself too. Given its state of contradictions, what it has achieved since the World War II is noteworthy, indeed exemplary. But a close look at where the country is headed indicates that it might just collapse under its own tent. This notion was globally entertained until recently, when it was branded as an illusory hypothesis. The bang of such an oxymoronic flip?: China has officially become the world’s second-biggest economy, overtaking Japan.
India, on the other hand, was a country recognized by the golden colliery of American outsourcing, communal conflicts, betel juice and the Taj Mahal. From the lack-luster post independence socialist financial strategies – put in irons by extensive regulation, protectionism, and public ownership, leading to pervasive corruption and slow economic growth – it was apparently comprehended that the country has nil future and again, like China, enmeshed by domestic tensions. Proving perceptions wrong, India’s economy now, is now the fourth largest in the world, in terms of the purchasing power parity (PPP). Under the wings of the latest liberalization policy, Indian economy has picked up steam and has been registering around 7% real growth every year. With this impetus and concrete stance, India is a corporeal threat to virulent nations of stout economic feat.
The multi-faceted face-off
Dispute over Arunachal Pradesh: China has been strict with maintaining its claim over Arunachal Pradesh ever since 1962. But with the Indian defense sector in strong shape, it has failed to usurp its allege from the assertive hands of the North East Frontier Agency. With the medals of resolving intractable boundary quarrels with Russia, Mongolia, Myanmar and Vietnam, China is still in an uncomfortable position vis-à-vis the peace truce of the Silk Road with India. A tad act of compulsion by the Sino bulk, keeping in mind the conspicuous status of India around the globe.
Military prowess: China’s military expenditure is expected to be about US $80 billion and more, with the official quote of $30billion. India’s official and unendorsed military expenditure, both, are around $22billion. China’s level of secrecy is a testimony to its undercover preparations for imperialistic schemes. India being a democratic nation has a certain echelon of public accountability; whereas China’s lack of a prototype People’s government allows it to perform tasks under the cloak. The race for regional dominance between these two countries has spawned a contest for militarization, with India (having an all open martial skeleton) sparing no efforts to match China’s military might.
Interdependence of Politics and Economy: When it comes to India, its economy has sustained unperturbed amid political chaos and sky high internal crisis. But with China it is difficult to state the same. Quoting Ryan Streeter of the Wall Street Journal, “India’s entrepreneurs have succeeded amid dysfunctional government and financial institutions by developing a kind of independent and experimental ingenuity, it stands to reason that the enterprising class would prosper even more were India to reduce barriers to business and clean up corruption. In China it is unclear what will happen if state efforts are no longer sufficient to entice and groom the entrepreneurs its economy needs.” I couldn’t agree more.
What next?
It will be an all lose situation for China if the Sino-Indo war fanaticism be attempted. China is a pressing foe to the US and also the rank #1 debtor, hence in any future confrontation centering India and China, the US will obviously side with India or resort to leniency. Pakistan will choose its Chinese ally, but is anticipated passive engagement, lest it offends the US. The scenario be same with Russia too, taking into account its joint defense initiatives with India. Consequences being – in spite of the Sino cache of military strength, China will face an economic downfall owing to its collateral system at function. India will face similar catch-22 for war will cause much detriment to its developing economy, despite of holding powerful associates both on its own merits, and as a counterweight to China.
The necessary walk now is to understand the fundamentalism involved. Proviso, the subject nations indulge in channelizing rivalry into collaboration; thawing their diplomatic spars as a starter, and then gradually progressing toward a multilateral alliance to steal the un-Pacific’s show.
India has to assert itself against any misadventure of any neighbouring country &china should avoid such step to precipitate a crisis in the region.Our first PM Nehruji was romanticist for India _china relations with common civilisational legacy& supported it on World forum for china to gain its legitimate position.What china gave in return is a point to ponder by the chinese leaderdhip.The two country together can create a beutful world and let us do it for the world &our people sake…..
Great foresight. Really, I would like to see you among the ploicy makers of india in future.
An excellent article indeed!but india china rivalry is much more intense and complex than most of us understand or know…and with each passing day the chinese anxiety is increasing due to the growing indian clout in the world.I can quote two examples for this statement.
1)Chinese desperation to make its presence more prominent in the indian ocean corridor especially in the arabian sea from where more than 70% of the world’s goods are transported.In short any country who has a strong presence in this area has a distinct advantage of controlling the trade bastions of its counterpart.That is why china has time and again tried to rescue ships from somalian pirates or is reconstructing ports at pakistan.
they are using the somalian problem as a pretext to consolidate their foothold in this vital corridor.also china is engaged in friendly overtures with burma to levy its navy in the bay of bengal…but that seems unlikely as indian navy with its extremely strong base in andaman islands is imperious there.
2)Last year chinese products with poor finishing were seized in some african countries which were labeled as indian products.This again shows chinese attempt to defame indian products and indian manufacturing industry in general by indulging in foul schemes.China already has captured the local indian market with its cheap products.I think capturing our own market would damage the chinese industry like nothing else.
I would conclude by saying that india is way behind china in terms of infrastructure and economy but has the capacity to hit china hard maybe sometime in future.China knows this and hence is doing everything possible to keep india on the ropes(un security council is one example of this).It must also be said that from the last 50 years,most indian governments have been very soft and apprehensive in their approach to tackle china and hence we have allowed the phantom of china to grow behemoth in our minds.
Nice thoughts. The debate over “China vs India” in favour of “China and India” is a tough one. We tried that and found that public opinion and other indicators point towards a “frenemies” (friend and enemy) dispensation with respect to the debate – a state likely to persist till the regional equations change with growth of Indian economy and an Indo US coalition emerges to stymie the Chinese aspirations in the region. More at
http://southasianidea.com/foreign-policy/china-india-and-or-versus/
I really do not see why all these comparison in an hostile sense between China and India. Both China and India have suffered western colonization and exploitation for over a hundred year. With the Western world declining due to laziness and greediness, it is time for both countries to catch up and make your mark. Actually, the worst thing the Western world wants to see is the two most populous countries work together and dominate the world. I have seen a lot of indian media targeting China as an “enemy” to compete and this is what the western world loves to see. Relatively speaking, I do not see such kinds of publicaitons in Chinese media and so I think China in this area is more prudent. Of course, there is border dispute between the two countries, but we should not let such minor incident to affect our co-operation. We should not care so much about these mountainous, uninhabiting areas bordering the two countries to disrupt the trust between the two countries. I think the old Deng was right in leaving all these dispute aside but work to resolve it peacefully while taking efforts to strengthen the country economy first. There are opportunties abound for China and India to work together but not compete and hostile together. The next century should be Asians’, do not fall into the trap of the West. We have been the underdog for far far too long.
When was India ever larger then China economically? How long did Marco Polo & his entourage stay in India? His whole trip fro Venice to Far East took about 24 yrs. Of which he stayed in China for appx 18-19 yrs.